By Severine Balick
Even amid political pushback, global investors are doubling down on decarbonization—pivoting capital into resilient, inflation-linked infrastructure investments that anchor long-term growth.
Spend time with LPs and GPs at infrastructure funds—whether in New York, Miami, or London—and the shift is unmistakable. “ESG” and even the broader notion of sustainable investing have become political flashpoints, especially in the U.S. where these terms were weaponized. The backlash is real, playing out in both rhetoric and policy debates, prompting many investors to reframe the narrative—emphasizing resilience, future-proofing, and defensible long-term growth.
Yet look beyond the language, and the capital flows reveal a very different reality. From where I sit, the fundamentals of energy transition haven’t wavered: the world’s largest investors continue to place decarbonization squarely at the heart of their growth agendas.
The Numbers Speak: Decarbonization as a Defining Opportunity
Global energy transition spending is on track to reach $3.3 trillion by 2025¹, with capital chasing renewables, grids, storage, hydrogen, and the digital backbone now critical for AI. Private infrastructure capital rivals global buyout volumes—and is growing even faster. Renewable infrastructure funds have delivered average net IRRs of 12.4% over the past five years, well ahead of traditional infrastructure at 9.1%², while offering inflation-linked contracts that protect portfolios in turbulent markets.
At Calibre One, we’re not just observing this—we’re advising global investors as they pivot strategies, recalibrate mandates, and hunt for the leadership needed to execute. It’s clear decarbonization is no longer a fringe opportunity; it’s become a central thesis of global capital allocation. BlackRock captures it well, calling this “not just about sustainability, but securing long-term growth and resilience,” and estimating an orderly transition could lift global GDP by 25% by 2040³.
Decarbonization: Regional Shocks, Common Drivers
The energy transition looks different around the world, but is propelled by remarkably similar forces. In Europe, an energy crisis has turbocharged local renewables and grid upgrades. The Middle East is racing to build vast hydrogen capacity to diversify beyond oil. In the U.S., the Inflation Reduction Act unleashed a historic clean energy boom, even as proposals like Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” begin to cloud the subsidy outlook. It’s forcing investors to sharpen underwriting and zero in on infrastructure tied to more durable demand—from broad decarbonization platforms to soaring AI-driven power needs and the rapid evolution of smart grids⁴.
A Tidal Wave of Capital at Work
Major funds are executing these strategies at scale because decarbonization assets deliver exactly what investors want: long-duration, inflation-protected returns anchored by structural shifts. From my seat, these flows aren’t just chasing yield—they’re also tied to macro imperatives like hedging inflation, securing energy independence, and responding to the new geopolitics of supply chains.
Brookfield is closing a $10 billion Global Transition Fund II⁵, investing in Spanish wind, North American carbon capture, and leading the £4 billion acquisition of National Grid’s UK gas business⁶—transforming legacy pipelines into hydrogen and renewable platforms. GIP is raising a similar $10 billion to retrofit traditional energy infrastructure for storage and blending, turning the backbone of old energy systems into green engines⁷.
ECP just closed $6.7 billion to target flexible gas peakers and microgrids feeding the AI data center boom⁸, often in partnership with Middle Eastern capital increasingly focused on edge infrastructure. I Squared Capital’s expansion of Aggreko highlights how they’re building distributed energy solutions that stabilize grids and power data-heavy industries, while also deploying capital into next-gen storage and microgrid platforms⁹. GIP continues to scale platforms that reconfigure traditional assets toward decarbonization and digital resilience.
Meanwhile, we’re seeing a surge of climate-focused alliances between Gulf sovereign wealth funds and global giants like BlackRock, KKR, GIP, I Squared, and ECP. Abu Dhabi’s ADIC, for instance, has partnered with ECP on energy and data infrastructure plays, while the UAE’s new $30 billion Altérra climate fund—launched to accelerate decarbonization across heavy industry and digital infrastructure like data centers—highlights just how pivotal the region has become to the next wave of global energy and technology build-outs.
Why Private Equity Wants In
I see traditional private equity leaning into infrastructure more aggressively than ever—not just to diversify, but to supercharge platform growth, unlock new origination angles, and balance portfolios with stable, contracted cash flows. Infrastructure also opens exit routes to sovereigns, pensions, and dedicated infra funds at premium multiples, with stable EBITDA and decarbonization themes that buyers see as lower risk. Just as crucial, it’s become a fundraising advantage: in today’s tougher environment, firms with credible infra overlays are finding it far easier to draw capital from LPs still underweight on real assets. That’s why BlackRock’s $12.5 billion acquisition of GIP or Bridgepoint’s buyout of ECP aren’t tangents—they reflect how private equity is now deliberately leveraging the interplay with infrastructure and decarbonization to anchor the next cycle of private capital strategies¹².
A Strategic Imperative—Accelerated by AI
BlackRock’s Investment Institute describes this as a “massive reallocation of capital,” on par with China’s global integration or the tech revolution³. The AI boom is only adding urgency. U.S. data center demand is forecast to nearly triple by 2028¹³, driving investment into new cooling, microgrids, and renewable offsets. The energy transition is no longer optional—it’s both a financial imperative and an operational necessity.
The Talent Crunch: Infrastructure’s New Bottleneck
At Calibre One, we’re right alongside the investors and boards shaping this shift, and see daily how intense the leadership bottleneck has become. Nearly half of global energy executives cite a lack of qualified leaders as the biggest risk to executing decarbonization, ahead of financing or regulatory hurdles¹⁴. Compensation premiums are rising, cross-sector hiring is pulling in talent from oil & gas, industrial tech, and data-heavy industries, and global teams are relocating closer to strategic assets.
We’re working closely with investors to secure these “hard to find” talents—multidisciplinary leaders who blend infrastructure, climate, digital, and increasingly AI expertise. Often we’re brought in pre-deal to lock in Senior Advisors and Operating Partners with exactly the decarbonization, digital transformation, and AI skills needed to accelerate these platforms and drive value creation from day one. Without the right leadership—capable of managing risk, integrating technology, managing digital transformation and scaling across markets—even the best-positioned decarbonization strategies can stall. These aren’t peripheral hires; they’re catalysts for unlocking full value in the energy transition.
Decarbonization: A Generational Investment Opportunity
Decarbonization is a once-in-a-generation investment wave—driven by resilience needs, AI demand, and the pursuit of stable, long-term returns across hydrogen, grids, storage, smart systems, and EV infrastructure.
Forget the ESG noise. The real signals are in big fund closings, landmark acquisitions, and ambitious platforms spanning energy, digital, and industrial value chains. It’s a pattern I see again and again: capital converging where policy, structural demand, and transformative technologies meet.
Even as wind and solar come under renewed pressure in the U.S.—with shorter subsidies and rising policy volatility—capital is pivoting toward grid upgrades, microgrids, SAF, hydrogen, water resilience, and industrial decarbonization, where returns rest on real demand, not fleeting incentives.
Bottom line: the investment case for decarbonization hasn’t wavered. If anything, today’s uncertainty is driving capital even more decisively into long-duration, inflation-protected infra assets. This isn’t about ticking ESG boxes anymore — it’s about determining where the next era of global resilient growth gets built, and who’s positioned to lead it.
Severine Balick is a Partner at Calibre One, where she leads global mandates at the intersection of infrastructure, decarbonization, private equity, and executive talent.
Sources
¹ BloombergNEF / IEA Global Energy Transition Outlook (2024)
² Preqin & Cambridge Associates Global Infrastructure Benchmarks (2024)
³ BlackRock Investment Institute, Transition & Resilience Insights (2023-2024)
⁴ McKinsey Energy Insights & BloombergNEF AI Power Demand Reports (2024)
⁵ Brookfield Press Releases & Fund Disclosures (2024)
⁶ National Grid & Brookfield Transaction Announcements (2024)
⁷ GIP Fundraising Documents & PEI Infrastructure Investor Coverage (2024)
⁸ ECP Fund Closings, Infrastructure Investor (2024)
⁹ I Squared & Aggreko Corporate Announcements (2024)
¹⁰ ECP Data Center Acquisitions, PE Hub (2024)
¹² BlackRock & Bridgepoint Press Releases on GIP & ECP Deals (2024)
¹³ IEA Digitalization in Energy Reports & McKinsey AI Load Forecasts (2024)
¹⁴ McKinsey Global Energy Executive Survey (2024)
¹⁵ ICE EU ETS Futures Data (Spring 2025)