By Severine Balick
Even amid political pushback, global investors are doubling down on decarbonization—pivoting capital into resilient, inflation-linked infrastructure investments that anchor long-term growth.
Spend time with LPs and GPs at infrastructure funds—whether in New York, Miami, or London—and the shift is unmistakable. “ESG” and even the broader notion of sustainable investing has become political flashpoints, especially in the U.S. where these terms were weaponized. The backlash is real, playing out in both rhetoric and policy debates, prompting many investors to reframe the narrative—emphasizing resilience, future-proofing, and defensible long-term growth.
Yet look past the rhetoric, and the capital flows tell a different story. From where I stand, the fundamentals of the energy transition remain as solid as ever: for the world’s biggest infrastructure investors, decarbonization remains firmly at the heart of their growth strategies.
The Numbers Don’t Lie: Decarbonization is the Investment Opportunity of Our Time
Global energy transition spending is on track to reach $3.3 trillion by 2025¹, with capital chasing renewables, grids, storage, hydrogen, and the digital infrastructures now critical for AI. Private infrastructure investments rival global buyout volumes—and are growing even faster. Renewable infra funds have delivered average net IRRs of 12.4% over the past five years, well ahead of traditional infrastructure at 9.1%², while offering inflation-linked contracts that protect portfolios in turbulent markets.
At Calibre One, we’re not just watching this unfold—we’re guiding global investors as they pivot strategies, reset mandates, and secure the leadership required to drive their growth agendas. It’s clear decarbonization is no longer a fringe opportunity; it’s now a core pillar of global capital allocation. As BlackRock puts it, this is “not just about sustainability, but about securing long-term growth and resilience,” with an orderly transition projected to boost global GDP by 25% by 2040³.
Decarbonization: Regional Shocks, Common Drivers
The energy transition may take different shapes across the globe, but it’s driven by strikingly similar forces. In Europe, an energy crisis has supercharged investment in local renewables and grid modernization. The Middle East is racing to build massive data centre infrastructure to meet the coming AI surge, alongside vast hydrogen capacity to pivot beyond oil. In the U.S., the Inflation Reduction Act has unleashed a historic clean energy boom, even as initiatives like Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” start to cloud the subsidy landscape. All of this is pushing investors to sharpen their underwriting and focus on infrastructure anchored to more resilient demand — from broad decarbonization platforms to soaring AI power needs and the rapid evolution of smart grids⁴.
A Tidal Wave of Capital at Work
Major infra funds are scaling decarbonization because these assets deliver exactly what they want: long-term, inflation-protected returns tied to structural shifts. This isn’t just yield-chasing—it’s a hedge on inflation, energy security, and supply chain volatility. Capital is flowing where resilience must be built for the decades ahead.
GIP just closed its $25.2 billion Fund V to retrofit legacy assets for a decarbonized, digital economy⁷. Brookfield is wrapping up its $10 billion Global Transition Fund II, already pivoting pipelines for hydrogen after a £4 billion buyout of National Grid’s UK gas business⁵⁶. ECP has secured $6.7 billion to back gas peakers and microgrids feeding the AI data surge, often with Gulf capital eyeing edge infrastructure⁸¹⁰. Meanwhile, I Squared’s expansion of Aggreko is driving distributed energy and storage that keep grids steady and data-heavy industries powered⁹.
At the same time, climate alliances between Gulf sovereigns and giants like BlackRock, KKR, GIP, and ECP are redrawing the energy map¹⁰–¹². Abu Dhabi’s ADIC is partnering with ECP on energy and data plays, while the UAE’s $30 billion Altérra fund¹⁰ shows just how pivotal the region has become to the next wave of global energy and tech buildouts.
Why Private Equity Wants In
I see traditional private equity leaning into infrastructure more aggressively than ever—not just to diversify, but to supercharge platform growth, unlock new origination angles, and balance portfolios with stable, contracted cash flows. Infrastructure also opens exit routes to sovereigns, pensions, and dedicated infra funds at premium multiples, with stable EBITDA and decarbonization themes that buyers see as lower risk. Just as crucial, it’s become a fundraising advantage: in today’s tougher environment, firms with credible infra overlays are finding it far easier to draw capital from LPs still underweight on real assets. That’s why BlackRock’s $12.5 billion acquisition of GIP or Bridgepoint’s buyout of ECP¹² aren’t tangents—they reflect how private equity is now deliberately leveraging the interplay with infrastructure and decarbonization to anchor the next cycle of private capital strategies.
A Strategic Imperative—Accelerated by AI
BlackRock’s Investment Institute describes this decarbonization wave as a “massive reallocation of capital,” on par with China’s global integration or the tech revolution³. The AI boom is only adding urgency. U.S. data center demand is forecast to nearly triple by 2028¹³, driving investment into new cooling, microgrids¹³, and renewable offsets. The energy transition is no longer optional—it’s both a financial imperative and an operational necessity.
The Talent Crunch: Infrastructure’s New Bottleneck
At Calibre One, we’re on the front lines of this shift—and see daily how the leadership bottleneck is tightening. Nearly half of global energy executives now cite the shortage of qualified leaders as the top risk to decarbonization, ahead of capital or policy concerns¹⁴. Compensation is rising, cross-sector hiring is intensifying, and global teams are relocating to strategic assets.
Investors are increasingly engaging us—often even pre-deal—to secure these hard-to-find profiles: CEOs, CROs, Heads of Data, Operating Partners, Senior Advisors, all multidisciplinary leaders who fuse infrastructure, climate, digital, and AI expertise. The aim is simple: to embed the capabilities needed to accelerate platforms and drive value creation from day one. Without leadership that can integrate technology, manage risk, and scale across markets, even the strongest decarbonization strategies risk stalling. These aren’t peripheral hires; they’re essential to unlocking returns in the energy transition.
Decarbonization: A Generational Investment Opportunity
Decarbonization is shaping up to be a once-in-a-generation investment wave, fuelled by resilience imperatives, surging AI demand, and the pursuit of stable, long-term returns across hydrogen, grids, storage, smart systems, and EV infrastructure.
Forget the ESG rhetoric. The real signals are clear: major fund closings, landmark acquisitions, and ambitious platforms that span energy, digital, and industrial value chains. Capital is consistently converging where policy, structural demand, and transformative technologies align.
Even as U.S. wind and solar face shorter subsidies and heightened policy risk, investors are pivoting toward grid upgrades, microgrids, SAF, hydrogen, water resilience, and industrial decarbonization—areas where returns are anchored in enduring demand rather than transient incentives.
The bottom line: the investment case for decarbonization remains intact. If anything, today’s uncertainty is pushing capital more decisively into long-duration, inflation-protected infrastructure. This is no longer about ticking ESG boxes; it’s about determining where the next era of global, resilient growth will be built—and who stands to lead it.
Severine Balick is a Partner at Calibre One, where she leads global mandates at the intersection of decarbonization, infrastructure, private equity, and executive talent.
Sources
¹ BloombergNEF / IEA Global Energy Transition Outlook (2024)
² Preqin & Cambridge Associates Global Infrastructure Benchmarks (2024)
³ BlackRock Investment Institute, Transition & Resilience Insights (2023-2024)
⁴ McKinsey Energy Insights & BloombergNEF AI Power Demand Reports (2024)
⁵ Brookfield Press Releases & Fund Disclosures (2024)
⁶ National Grid & Brookfield Transaction Announcements (2024)
⁷ GIP Fundraising Documents & PEI Infrastructure Investor Coverage (2024)
⁸ ECP Fund Closings, Infrastructure Investor (2024)
⁹ I Squared & Aggreko Corporate Announcements (2024)
¹⁰ ECP Data Center Acquisitions, PE Hub & Gulf Sovereign Investment Reports (2024)
¹¹ ADIC & ECP Energy Announcements (2024)
¹² BlackRock & Bridgepoint Press Releases on GIP & ECP Deals (2024)
¹³ IEA Digitalization in Energy Reports & McKinsey AI Load Forecasts (2024)
¹⁴ McKinsey Global Energy Executive Survey (2024)
¹⁵ ICE EU ETS Futures Data (Spring 2025)